Friday, June 6, 2025

Motivated reasoning alert: YOU are at risk!

Public service announcement: STOP motivated reasoning in its tracks! Want to believe a theory based on a chain of ideas? BEWARE! You are at risk! NO ONE is immune! (Cartoon by Hilda Bastian.)


There are so many ways bias goes under our radars and derails our judgment. Motivated reasoning and its tricky sidekick, confirmation bias, are some of the worst. Motivated reasoning allows our feelings and beliefs to to steer us to what feels like a rational and objective position. Confirmation bias lets us cherry pick evidence to suit: A study that confirms our beliefs gets a free pass, while we nitpick a challenging study to death – and then the findings that shore up our argument build up in our minds.

Digital and social media is an ideal force for super-charging all this: It's great at stirring up feelings and urgency so that people spread studies to a tribe of like-minded people without paying much – if any – critical attention to the content. Speed and emotion are natural enemies of objectivity.

All this keeps convincing us that the conclusion we want to have is the right one – and it's such a time saver! It's a big problem, though, if you want your beliefs to be an accurate view of reality.

Hilda Bastian
6 June 2025


Confirmation bias alert! Be aware of the early WARNING signs: A free pass to a study you agree with; Fatal flaws only in studies you disagree with; Easy recall only of data that proves you are right.Meter shows thinking threat level is extreme: Man watching thinks, "Ha! I KNEW it!" (Cartoon by Hilda Bastian.)

1 comment:

  1. Great point ! It made me realize that I may have been hit by motivated reasoning / confirmation biases. During the Pandemic many well-intended people on both sides of the political spectrum were clearly driven by this 'noble' type of cognitive bias when enacting 'evidence-based' public health recommendations and adopted /defended certain positions on controversial topics. The solution is NOT easy. Not sure IF we will be ever able to get to a state of 'zero' motivation biases. However there are two best medicines to treat these urges 1) teaching and fostering critical thinking since early in training, including solid critical appraisal skills: this should be the universal language we should all speak fluently - even if with accents !, and 2)Open mindedness in science, never censor, isolate or cancel dissenting voices, always remember: '"EPPUR SI MOUVE"...

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